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MADAGASCAR – MILITARY COUP FOLLOWING GEN Z REBELLION

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Summary:

Madagascar’s armed forces seized control of the government on October 14, 2025, following weeks of intense youth-led protests that forced President Andry Rajoelina to flee the country. The military takeover—led by Colonel Michael Randrianirina of the elite CAPSAT unit—marks Madagascar’s third military power transition since independence and the fifth major political crisis since 1960. The dramatic events reflect widespread frustration with economic hardship, governance failures, and chronic infrastructure problems, particularly water and electricity shortages that sparked the initial demonstrations.

Timeline of Events:

September 25, 2025: Youth-led protests began in Antananarivo, Madagascar’s capital, initially triggered by chronic water and electricity outages. Many residents reported not having running water for up to six years despite continuing to pay utility bills.

September 26: President Rajoelina, attending the 80th UN General Assembly in New York, announced dismissal of Energy Minister Jean-Baptiste Olivier for “not doing his job.” He condemned protests as “acts of destabilization” and accused opposition politicians of orchestrating a coup attempt.

September 29: Rajoelina dissolved the government of Prime Minister Christian Ntsay in attempt to appease protesters. The gesture failed to calm demonstrations.

Late September-Early October: Protests escalated and spread beyond Antananarivo to other major cities. Demonstrators expanded grievances to include:

  • Government corruption
  • Cost of living increases
  • Poverty (affecting about 75% of population)
  • Lack of educational opportunities
  • Poor governance overall

At least 22 people killed and over 100 injured in clashes with security forces, according to UN figures. Amnesty International and Reporters Without Borders condemned excessive force and violence against journalists.

October 6: Rajoelina appointed military general Ruphin Zafisambo as new Prime Minister, another unsuccessful attempt to quell unrest.

October 11-12: The critical turning point—elite CAPSAT military unit joined protesters, announcing they would “refuse orders to shoot” demonstrators. Soldiers appeared in streets calling on colleagues to side with students. Video showed military forces clashing with police. Rajoelina reportedly evacuated to Réunion Island on a French military plane, then flew to Dubai. He cited “explicit and extremely serious threats” to his life.

October 13: Rajoelina addressed the nation from an undisclosed location (New York), stating he had fled to “protect my life” but not formally resigning. Called for dialogue and respect for constitution. His whereabouts remained unknown, fueling rumors.

October 14:

  • Parliament (National Assembly) voted to impeach Rajoelina for abandoning his post and deserting duty
  • Colonel Michael Randrianirina announced from presidential palace steps that armed forces had “taken power”
  • Military dissolved all institutions except lower house of parliament
  • Celebrations erupted in Antananarivo streets, with protesters dancing and cheering
  • International community condemned the military takeover

October 17: Randrianirina sworn in as interim president at High Constitutional Court, promising to appoint civilian prime minister and hold elections within 18 months to two years

The Gen Z Movement:

The protests drew global attention for being primarily led by Generation Z (people born mid-1990s to early 2010s), using social media as their organizing platform.

Organization:

  • Facebook page “Gen Z Madagascar” emerged as primary organizing hub
  • Gained over 100,000 followers in five days
  • Logo inspired by manga One Piece, using Madagascar-style hat instead of traditional straw hat
  • Hashtags and online mobilization coordinated demonstrations
  • Movement also called “Tsy Manaiky Lembenana” (“We Refuse to Be Trampled”) and “Leo Delestage” (“Fed up with load shedding”)

Tactics:

  • Peaceful mass demonstrations with phone flashlights held high
  • Symbolic colored straw hats worn by protesters
  • Clear demands: Rajoelina’s resignation
  • Refused government offers for dialogue despite repeated outreach
  • Maintained momentum despite violent crackdowns

Inspiration:

  • Drew from successful youth uprisings in Kenya, Indonesia, Peru, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka
  • Part of broader global trend of Gen Z political activism
  • Connected to worldwide through social media, unlike previous generations
  • Spokesperson Elliot Randriamandrato told AFP: “The past few weeks are a half-victory, the real struggle begins now”

Historical Context:

Madagascar has experienced chronic political instability since independence:

1960: Independence from French colonial rule

1972: First military coup, putting commanders in power

1991: Political crisis resolved with military intervention

2009: Military-backed coup (the same CAPSAT unit now in control) brought Rajoelina to power as 35-year-old transitional leader, ousting President Marc Ravalomanana

2014: Rajoelina stepped aside to restore constitutional order

2018: Rajoelina elected president in democratic elections

2023: Reelected in vote boycotted by opposition parties

2025: Current crisis and military takeover

This pattern reflects deep-rooted challenges. Historian Denis-Alexandre Lahiniriko of University of Antananarivo explains: “Madagascar has never succeeded in creating a socio-political structure its population identifies with.” This alienation between state and people underlies recurrent crises.

Colonel Michael Randrianirina:

The coup leader has a complex history:

Background:

  • Commander of CAPSAT (Corps d’armée des personnels et des services administratifs et techniques)—elite military unit
  • Same unit that brought Rajoelina to power in 2009
  • Became vocal critic of Rajoelina in recent years
  • Arrested and imprisoned in November 2023 for three months for allegedly instigating mutiny

Current Role:

  • Announced military takeover October 14, stating: “We have taken the power”
  • Claimed military was “responding to the people’s calls”
  • Denied it was a coup: “I don’t think there was a coup. The army is just showing the Malagasy people that we still exist”
  • Asked crowd: “Are you ready to accept a military takeover?” and received cheers
  • Sworn in as interim president October 17
  • Shed military uniform for suit and tie at ceremony
  • Promised civilian prime minister and elections within two years

Justification:

  • Pointed to Constitutional Court’s backing of his role
  • Claimed military acted constitutionally (though court was dissolved by military)
  • Emphasized collaboration with people: “Just the military, it wouldn’t have been possible. Just us [protesters], it would’ve taken months… The turning point came from the convergence of both”

Madagascar’s Socio-Economic Crisis:

The protests reflect deep structural problems:

Poverty:

  • 75-80% of population lives below poverty line (World Bank figures)
  • One of world’s poorest countries despite natural resources
  • Limited economic opportunities, especially for youth
  • High unemployment, particularly among educated young people

Infrastructure Failures:

  • Chronic electricity outages: “load shedding” affects daily life
  • Water shortages: Residents report no running water for six years in some areas
  • Poor road networks
  • Inadequate healthcare facilities
  • Limited educational infrastructure

Governance Issues:

  • Widespread perception of corruption
  • Lack of government accountability
  • Poor service delivery
  • Disconnect between political elite and ordinary citizens
  • Allegations of mismanagement and nepotism

Geography and Biodiversity:

Madagascar is extraordinary both geographically and biologically:

Location:

  • Island nation in Indian Ocean off East Africa’s coast
  • Bordered by Mozambique Channel to west
  • Neighboring islands: Comoros, Réunion, Mauritius
  • 4th-largest island globally

Geography:

  • Diverse landscapes: lush rainforests, dry deserts, grassy plains, coastal coral reefs and mangroves
  • Area: approximately 10,000 km²
  • Home to about 30 million people

Unique Biodiversity:

  • Nearly 90% of flora and fauna endemic due to millions of years of ocean isolation
  • Famous species:
    • Lemurs (including silky sifakas and aye-ayes)
    • Giant leaf-tailed geckos
    • Spider tortoises
    • Dumeril’s boas
    • Madagascan plovers
  • Marine life: Humpback whales and pygmy blue whales along coasts
  • National tree: Baobab (notable for water-storing trunk)

Economic Importance:

  • World’s biggest vanilla producer
  • Agricultural economy: 80% depend on agriculture
  • Grow coffee, vanilla, sugarcane
  • Rice is staple food
  • Tourism potential due to biodiversity

Cultural Heritage:

  • Rich musical traditions
  • Valiha (bamboo tube zither) is national instrument
  • French colonial influence in language and institutions
  • Blend of African and Asian cultural influences

International Response:

United Nations:

  • Secretary-General António Guterres expressed “sadness at the violence”
  • Called the military takeover an “unconstitutional change of government”
  • Demanded “return to constitutional order and rule of law”
  • Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric emphasized need to reverse the coup

African Union:

  • Called emergency meeting of security council October 14
  • Condemned military takeover
  • Yet to announce specific actions or sanctions
  • Monitoring situation

France:

  • President Emmanuel Macron expressed “deep concern” over political crisis
  • Emphasized need to respect constitutional order and institutional continuity
  • Supported African Union and SADC actions
  • Warned against using youth for political or military purposes
  • Neither confirmed nor denied reports of French military plane evacuating Rajoelina
  • France has complex relationship with former colony—Rajoelina reportedly holds French citizenship, source of domestic discontent

Regional Organizations:

  • SADC (Southern African Development Community) monitoring situation
  • No major regional powers have recognized military government

Mixed International Reaction:

  • No significant immediate sanctions announced
  • Some analysts view with concern, others see as expression of legitimate grievances
  • Debate over whether military intervention will lead to democracy or entrench authoritarianism

Broader Context – Gen Z Uprisings:

Madagascar’s events part of global phenomenon:

Similar Youth-Led Movements:

  • Kenya: Gen Z protests forced government policy changes
  • Bangladesh: Student-led uprising ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina (replaced by Nobel laureate)
  • Sri Lanka: Youth protests toppled president
  • Nepal: Student movements influenced political transitions
  • Indonesia and Peru: Significant youth-led demonstrations
  • Morocco: Violent protests with multiple deaths

Common Characteristics:

  • Led primarily by young people (mid-1990s to early 2010s births)
  • Organized via social media platforms
  • Frustration with governance, corruption, lack of opportunities
  • Demand for accountability and reform
  • Willingness to sustain protests despite risks
  • Technology-enabled coordination

Africa’s Unique Challenges:

  • Youngest population globally
  • Highest youth unemployment rates
  • Rapid urbanization without corresponding job creation
  • Educational expansion without economic opportunities
  • Widespread governance failures
  • Security challenges (especially Sahel region accounting for over half terror-related deaths worldwide)

Why Gen Z Movements Threaten African Leaders:

Professor Kingsley Moghalu and other analysts identify key factors:

  • Demographics: Young people comprise over half the population in many African countries
  • Technology: Social media enables rapid mobilization previously impossible
  • Economic frustration: High education levels meet limited job prospects
  • Governance failures: Endemic corruption and poor service delivery
  • Global awareness: Youth see better governance elsewhere and demand similar
  • Fearlessness: Unlike older generations, less intimidated by authoritarian tactics

Cornell University Professor Olufemi Taiwo emphasized: “This is a civil society uprising and its resolution should not involve the military.” Many experts worry military takeovers derail genuine democratic movements.

Questions and Concerns:

Short-Term:

  • Will Randrianirina honor promise to appoint civilian government?
  • Can military-led transition avoid authoritarianism?
  • What happens to protest leaders and civil society activists?
  • Will international community impose sanctions?

Medium-Term:

  • Will elections occur within promised two-year timeframe?
  • Can Madagascar break cycle of coups and instability?
  • Will new government address underlying economic issues?
  • How to restore water, electricity, and basic services?

Long-Term:

  • Can Madagascar develop stable political institutions?
  • How to create economic opportunities for youth?
  • Will pattern repeat elsewhere in Africa?
  • What lessons for addressing youth frustration continent-wide?

Historian Lahiniriko warned: “It’s too early to say, but the political elite could simply return to power” without strong leadership or comprehensive ideology driving reforms.

Significance:

Madagascar’s 2025 crisis illustrates the intersection of several global trends: youth political awakening powered by social media, chronic governance failures in developing nations, the power and limitations of popular movements, and the persistent temptation of military intervention in civilian politics.

For Africa specifically, it raises urgent questions about how leaders respond to legitimate youth grievances. The continent’s demographic reality—majority young population with limited opportunities—means similar explosions could occur elsewhere if governance doesn’t improve. The international community faces difficult choices: how to support democratic movements while opposing military coups, even when those coups claim popular legitimacy.

For Madagascar itself, the next 18-24 months will determine whether this becomes a genuine transition to better governance or merely another chapter in a recurring pattern of instability. The Gen Z protesters achieved their immediate goal—removing Rajoelina—but their real challenge begins now: ensuring military rule doesn’t become permanent and that promised reforms actually materialize.

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